2010 Foreclosure Update for Orange County ...
Zen Ziejewski and Rick Sharga of Realty Trac,
discussing Foreclosure Trends for Orange County
Zen's 2010 Foreclosure Forecast for Orange County...
I was able to have a private meeting this week with Rick Sharga, Senior Vice President, of Realty Trac, the nations #1 foreclosure reporting service to discuss the foreclosure trends for Orange County, California and the nation. It was a very informative session with Rick and I had the chance to better understand the state of the housing market locally and across the country.
Here is what we discussed...Foreclosures will continue to increase until the end of 2010 or 2011. The banks have approximately 500,000 foreclosures nationwide that have not come to market yet. We are currently in our 45 month of increased foreclosure activity. There were 938,000 foreclosure filiings during the 3rd quarter of 2009 nationwide.
What are causing all of the foreclosures? Many of the foreclosures are being driving by UNEMPLOYMENT, DECREASE IN HOME VALUES, SUB PRIME LENDING, ADJUSTABLE MORTGAGES, MORTGAGE RESETS and MUCH TIGHTER LENDING GUIDELINES.
Orange County Prediction... Yes, there will me more foreclosures coming to market over the next two years but it will not be a flood that I have heard some buyer's claim to be coming. What it will do is help to balance the depleted home inventory that we are currently experiencing in Orange County. The market in Orange County has stabilized and if the economy stays stable then we should see stable home prices. I don't see the increase foreclosures that will be seen in Orange County affecting prices like they will in other areas of the state. Right now we are seeing home prices increase. The median home price has increased for 6 straight month in Oange County.
Orange County inventory levels (in the 7,000's) are half of what they were in the beginning of 2008 (over 15,000 homes listed). There are not enough homes on the market under $700,000 to keep up with the demand and low interest rates. With affordability levels in Orange County at the highest they have been in decades the market should remain stable or coincide with the economy. The higher end market has been affected by the lack of financing options.
As 2010 progresses we will see the affects of more foreclosures and how they are affecting our local market. If you'd like to learn more about purchasing a foreclosure or discuss your thoughts regarding this blog please contact me directly at 949-922-2200.
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