Real Estate Information

The LATEST figures released by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), based on contracts signed in May show twenty-eight percent of homebuyers in California who signed their name on the dotted line last month are buying REO properties. At the same time, short sale deals made up some 19 percent of the state’s pending home sales in May.

The group’s pending sales data is generated from a survey of more than 70 local Realtor associations and multiple listing services (MLSs) throughout the state.

The total share of distressed homes under contract in the Golden State last month was unchanged from April at 48 percent.

While the distressed portion of pending sales held steady, the number of individual transactions rose as the state’s overall pending sales numbers increased.

C.A.R. says its pending sales index, on the whole, was up 1.6 percent from April’s reading and up 12 percent from May 2010. It’s the first year-over-year increase recorded in 18 months.

“May marked the first year-over-year increase in pending sales since November 2009 and the largest annual increase since August 2009,” said Beth L. Peerce, president of C.A.R.

Peerce added, “May’s increase in pending sales is consistent with our expectation that home sales in the second half of 2011 should be higher compared with the second half of 2010, and as a result, annual sales for all of 2011 should match or exceed last year’s annual pace.”

While a 48 percent distressed market share is significant by all accounts, some areas of California are nearly fully saturated in distressed sales.

Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, and C.A.R. says the data offer solid information on future changes in the direction of the market. A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. C.A.R. explained that the majority of pending home sales usually becomes closed sales transactions one to two months later.

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Prospective homebuyers cite worries about future unemployment, concerns about property affordability, and the local economic outlook as issues that hold them back from jumping into the market, however, according to Genworth, an industry survey company, these economic concerns have not translated into excessive mortgage stress among recent U.S. homebuyers.

According to the survey, 87 percent of Americans who bought their first home in the past 12 months expect to easily meet their mortgage repayment obligations in the coming year.

The company says the U.S. is the most optimistic among all the markets surveyed about buying a home. According to the findings, nearly two-thirds of Americans polled believe now is a good time to buy a home.

Genworth says indebtedness colors how households around the world view their financial situation and how they approach buying a home. Western countries tended to have higher levels of debt, but were also more comfortable taking on debt.

Of the many factors that influence the decision to buy a home, Genworth notes that consumer confidence is one of the most important.

The company’s survey found that homebuyer confidence has eroded due to property market instability and worries about personal finances, leading consumers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

Still, nearly two-thirds of Americans surveyed believe now is a good time to buy a home for those who can afford it.

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As reported on DSNews.com

According to researchers at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, this Great Recession has exacerbated the housing affordability challenges which buyers are facing.

The Center says its last measure of home-cost challenges showed that 9.3 million homeowners paid more than half their income on their mortgage – and that was in 2009. With the state of the labor market only worsening since then, and not only unemployment but underemployment plaguing more and more American families, the figure has undoubtedly risen.

While low-income households are most likely to have such severe burdens, the Harvard researchers point out that cost pressures have been moving up the ladder to affect more moderate- and middle-income households. In fact, rates of severe-cost burden among households making between $45,000 and $60,000 per year has nearly doubled since 2001.

In addition to longstanding and worsening affordability challenges, the academia report points out that the housing crash and ensuing economic downturn drained household wealth, ruined the credit standing of many borrowers, and devastated communities with widespread foreclosures.

According to the Harvard Housing Center’s study, the collapse of house prices has left nearly 15 percent of homeowners with properties worth less than their mortgages and eroded the equity of most others.

Overall, the amount of real home equity fell from $14.9 trillion at its peak in the first quarter of 2006 to $6.3 trillion at the end of 2010 – well below the $10.1 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the foreclosure crisis continues. The report cites statistics from Lender Processing Services which show that as of the end of March, about 2 million home loans were at least 90 days delinquent and another 2.2 million properties were still in the foreclosure pipeline. The LPS study found that 67 percent of these owners had made no payments in over a year, and 31 percent had gone for two years without a payment.

On the foreclosure front, the Harvard report says the good news is that the share of home loans delinquent by at least three months dropped from 5.6 percent in early 2010 to 3.8 percent in March – a sign of light at the end of the tunnel, according to the researchers.

As reporte by DSNews.com

INVESTMENT BUYERS ARE!

According to the RPX Housing Market Report from Radar Logic Incorporated, a real estate data and analytics company based in New York, while home sales have slowed from the typical pace seen at the start of the spring buying season, the foreclosure market is performing better than the market for all other homes,

So far this year, the motivated transaction count within the firm’s RPX Composite, which assesses sales of foreclosed homes by financial firms and at foreclosure auctions, increased just slightly less than its average gain for the period over the last four years.

All other sales, on the other hand, increased by less than half as much as they usually do during the period.

Radar Logic credits investment buyers for these latest findings.

“Investment buyers are driving sales of foreclosed homes, but they have largely ignored the rest of the market,” said Quinn Eddins, director of research at Radar Logic.

“On average, foreclosed homes are priced at a 39 percent discount to other homes,” Eddins said. “Investors believe they can purchase these properties at a significant discount to their future value. Sellers in the rest of the market have not lowered their prices to levels where investors feel confident they can make an adequate return on their investment.”

Eddins explained that non-investment buyers are not as active this year.

“Widespread negative equity is reducing demand as it makes it difficult for would-be move-up buyers to sell their current homes,” he said. “And buyers in general are wary of making a down payment of 20 or 25 percent in an environment where home prices are widely expected to fall over the next 12 to 24 months.”

The report also revealed that home prices increased less than usual this spring.

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As reported on DSNews.com

Local reports indicate investors have been snapping up a larger share of foreclosure and REO homes in recent months, and an industry survey released Thursday suggests they are poised to become even more of a presence.

According to a study conducted by Move, Inc., which operates several online real estate sites, real estate investors will be more active in their local markets by a three-to-one margin compared to typical homebuyers over the next 24 months.

The National Association of Realtors reported just last week that all-cash transactions stood at 31 percent of all existing-home sales in April, with investors accounting for the bulk of cash purchases.

A separate report from Campbell Surveys found that investors accounted for 23 percent of the housing market in the month of April.

The research firm noted in its release that there’s a growing gap between the inventory of distressed properties on the market and the number of first-time homebuyers that typically target these homes. Campbell Surveys says when such a situation develops, it’s time for investors to step into the market to buy these properties, often at bargain-basement prices.

Only 43.5 percent say it will be harder to find bargains and 41.5 percent expect it’ll be easier to sell their properties in the next six months.

Meanwhile, 22 percent of investors are bullish and expect prices to rise in the next six to 12 months, and 53.5 percent expect prices to remain relatively the same. Twenty-three percent expect prices will fall over the next year.

The Move Inc. survey also shows investors are positioned to compete with traditional first-time homebuyers for hot deals. Two-thirds of investors said they expect the problems first-time buyers are having getting mortgages to make it easier for them to compete, while eight out of 10 expect cash discounts from sellers.

Contrary to the tactics used by investors known as “flippers,” 50 percent of today’s real estate investors plan to hold their properties for five-plus years, according to the survey results. Only 11 percent expect to sell within 12 months.

“This data suggests today’s climate is hot for investing and is attracting a lot of new people that don’t fit the stereotypical deal-driven flippers that buy and sell properties quickly,” said Steve Berkowitz, CEO of Move, Inc.

“They’re mostly entrepreneurial individuals that will make vital contributions to local communities by investing their own money and sweat equity to improve and maintain properties,” Berkowitz added.

While cash is king in many circles, the survey found that 75 percent of investors plan to combine cash and credit to purchase properties as they build their real estate portfolio. In fact, nearly 60 percent plan to put less than half down on their next buy and finance the rest. Finding financing, however, was cited as one of the most difficult challenges investors face.

Based on the investments they’re making in today’s environment, real estate investors expect high yield returns, according to Move, Inc. Nearly half – 48 percent — expect a profit of 20 percent or more from their property investments, a 4 percent annual rate of return over five years.

Move, Inc.’s survey results are based on 1,000 interviews conducted April 11 through 15 nationwide. The company says the margin of error on weighted data is +/- 3 percent.

As reported by DSNews.com

This week started with an announcement by the California Attorney General Kamala Harris:  A 25-person task force has been created to assist with protecting homeowners from mortgage fraud.

“Families are losing their homes, while those who perpetrated crimes and frauds against them walk free,” Harris said.

The Mortgage Fraud Strike Force will be staffed by Department of Justice attorneys and investigators and composed of both civil and criminal enforcement teams.

Harris has tasked the group with monitoring and prosecuting violations at every step of the mortgage process, from the origination of mortgage loans to the promotion of fraudulent foreclosure rescue services to the marketing of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to the investing public.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa joined Harris at a press conference announcing the initiative and offered his support of the new strike force.

“With nearly 10,000 foreclosures in the city of Los Angeles last year,” he said, “this strike force is certain to help countless residents and families from becoming victimized.”

“The fingerprints of illegal activity are all over the foreclosure crisis,” said Paul Leonard, director of the Center for Responsible Lending’s California office. “The attorney general’s effort marries the need to punish bad actors for the practices that brought our economy to the brink with the need to eliminate the scam artists who have since attempted to profit from it.”

The attorney general’s office says California has not only been hit hard by the foreclosure crisis, but by predators looking to take advantage of the millions of residents who are underwater on their mortgages, in foreclosure, or at risk of losing their homes.

Last year alone, the attorney general’s office reports there were foreclosure filings against 546,669 California homes, and it is projected that between 2009 and 2012, a total of 2 million California homes will enter the foreclosure process.

In addition to scams on the default side of the business, the task force will be on the lookout for fraud related to unfair and predatory practices in originating loans, investment and money laundering schemes related to both origination and foreclosure prevention, and misconduct and false claims involving investments and securities tied to subprime mortgages.

The Mortgage Fraud Strike Force will operate out of Department of Justice offices in Los Angeles, Fresno, San Francisco, and Sacramento.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales of previously owned homes fell back 0.8 percent in April.  
The share of distressed homes – bank-owned properties and pre-foreclosure short sales — also dropped last month, accounting for 37 percent of total sales volume, down from 40 percent in March and an average of 39 percent over the first quarter.

The trade group says an uneven recovery should be expected and notes that existing-home sales have risen in six of the last nine months.

The April decline brought the annual sales pace for pre-owned homes down to 5.05 million, compared to 5.09 million in March.

Existing-home sales are 12.9 percent below the 5.80 million pace recorded in April 2010, but NAR pointed out that sales surged during April and May of last year in response to the homebuyer tax credit, which skews the year-over-year comparison.

Realtors in the field say April’s existing-home sales numbers are being impacted by appraisal issues.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows 11 percent of Realtors report a contract was cancelled last month because the appraisal came in below the price negotiated between buyer and seller. Ten percent had a contract delayed and 14 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low appraisal.

“[E]xisting guidelines from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae must be fully implemented so all appraisals are done by valuators with local expertise,” said Ron Phipps, president of NAR.

According to NAR’s latest report, all-cash transactions stood at 31 percent in April, down from a record level of 35 percent in March. They were 26 percent in March 2010. Investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

The trade group’s study shows that the national median existing-home price for all housing types was $163,700 in April, up from $159,600 in March – likely the result of fewer distressed property transactions.

Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.9 percent to 3.87 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That’s up from an 8.3-month supply in March.

Your thoughts and feedback on this topic are greatly appreciated. Please feel free to post your comments.

Keeping you informed about the Orange County real estate market, economy and life in the OC is what I'm committed to doing.

For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.

SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at Orange County MLS Home Search